It is obviously looking like Labor are heading for a crushing win next weekend, and howard’s biggest problem is probably just holding his own seat.
But, the reality is that the general vote doesn’t count quite as much as the seat by seat situation, which might make things closer than the polling suggests.
Our area is an interesting story of neglect as a safe Labor seat. It is massively under-resourced in just about every way, and some of the issues with health services, etc, are a joke. But, being a safe seat has just meant we’ve been taken for granted. So much so, our “representative” didn’t even live in our area. Beasley lived in South Perth, which couldn’t be more different to Rockingham if you tried. (I have very strong views about this whole “out of towner” thing – imagine if I as a pastor lived in South Perth but ministered in Rockingham? That’s not real or right, I don’t think.)
But, the good news is that each election has seen the seat slowly become less and less “safe”, and this election will be fascinating. Labor has chucked another old party hack from out of town into our electorate, whereas the Libs have a local guy running who lives in the area and has given himself to a number of key community projects, and has been seen to extract federal funding and support for some of these efforts. The other guy? Well, we don’t know him and he has a funny name! :-)
So, my personal hope is that our seat either flips or goes right on the line so that we’re no longer just ignored and taken for granted. In my view, this would be perfect for our area. What a difference that would make.
5 comments ↓
Right on the money there ob1 – it’s only by making our seat marginal that it might get any attention.
One thing I like about the Lib guy is that after he lost the last election to Beazley, he didn’t just roll over and disappear – he’s been a constant presence in the local news ever since, perhaps even more than our MP himself. He’s been campaigning for 3 years, not just a couple of months. He’ll still probably lose to big shot Mr Palindrome (who the ALP are parachuting into parliament via our area, which he has no natural ties to), but I admire the effort Edman has put in.
I’m sorely tempted to write a long outburst here – but I’m so tired of this out of date, visionless and adversarial personality driven election system that I will refrain…
I’d be curious to hear what system or approach you think would be a much better way to go, realistically.
I’ve pondered comments made by some about how our system has come to represent the US personality-driven model, but I personally think it’s always been that way. Whenever we think back over the various administrations that have reigned, we always think in terms of the leader and then the party. At least I do because to me, even in our party based system, the leaders of the party deeply influence what happens that I think the parties are shaped by them too, not just the country.
And, I think that my developing view of leadership is that when it comes to influence and motivating people to do difficult but necessary things, it almost always requires an individual to do that, not a committee. So, I kind of feel there might be something inherent in us that looks for that.
But, I’d be interested in what you think might realistically work better. Gives us something to take our minds off this interminable campaign!
Interesting post Mark…
I wonder how the upcoming generations are going to affect this and future elections.
What you are saying is that your general area is predonimately a labour voting seat. Will young people, with their lack of ‘brand’ loyalty (so to speak) mean that if a sitting member is not caring about them, he will be automatically be out, regardless of his party?
well, i think the future will be very interesting for politics.
in the US, they have people they call “red dog democrats”. basically, a red dog democrat (usually in some of the southern states) will vote democrat even if they had a red dog running for the seat.
i think the seat of brand and the rockingham/kwinana area in general have been “red dog labor” voters – basically, the thought of not voting for labor was just unthinkable for the vast bulk of folks down here, and even more slanted by the industry down here and the union influence.
but, that’s been changing as the area has undergone rapid expansion and development, and i think the demographic shift in the area has meant that the traditional labor shade of the area has begun to become less pronounced. i don’t think many of the more white collar types moving into the area are necessarily labor voters, and because many of them are younger, they’re more likely to be swinging voters based on the best deal running on things like housing, interest rates, etc.
but, the other dynamic is that i think many folks are tired of feeling like this area constantly gets overlooked, and even our very own kim beasley (theoretically once one of the most influential people in his party) didn’t really get a huge amount done for our area, i don’t think. and the state labor guys definitely just totally don’t really care about this area – it’s just a “given” that they have the vote here. pork barrelling goes on all over the place, but not down here – for the size of this area and its population, it’s astounding to me just how under-resourced this area is in basic stuff like schools and health, etc. staggering, actually.
but, the local lib guy has been getting involved in a very public and long-term way that (to me, in a non-political assessment) is quite impressive. he understands the local issues and values, and has given himself for several years now (as baggas pointed out) to getting involved and trying to move big projects and developments along. he’s even had ads in the local paper each week for years with his mobile number and a note to call him if you have a problem (i’ve always wondered what kinds of calls he gets!).
so, it’s going to be interesting, this election… the closer it runs for us, the better for our area, whether you’re a red dog labor dude or a blue cat lib… :-)